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4th Quarter Preview 2024

  • Writer: Christopher Lakian
    Christopher Lakian
  • Oct 4, 2024
  • 2 min read

Good Day to everyone.

 

Please pray for those experiencing nearly insurmountable hardships and those who lost their lives and loved ones in hurricane Helene. I love the upstate and plan on making several trups to help those in need.

 

Market Brief:

 

It is no surprise that we should expect volatility to be the norm for markets until November 6th. The last several elections have been contentious, and sadly, I  expect nothing different in 2024

 

The good news!

 

The market internals remain strong! We rotate between technology and Industrials and other leading sectors such as insurance and pharmaceuticals. This  is consistant with a normal and healthy market and can help diversified portfolios boost value during difficult times. 

 

In other asset classes: 

 

Bonds are still a mystery and a concern! In my lifetime, I have always viewed bonds as the bellwether of an economy. Unfortunately, I need help getting a good read on whether rates are going higher or lower. 

 

After the Federal Reserve Rate cut, the long end of the curve (i.e., car loans and housing loans) went higher. And the short end went a smidge lower. (we call this a bear steepener in finance) 

 

This could mean a couple of things! 1)  Economic activity may increase over the next 3-6 months, and rates are here to stay! The economy could progress and grow until something changes the narrative.2) It could also mean we have persistent inflation and poor government fiscal management. 

 

As I said, it's a mess; I am, unfortunately, confused about where it goes. 

 

The Key to interest rates is to look at the unemployment trend discussed in my last email. 

 

Until there is clarity on employment and rates, I recommend short-duration fixed-income investments until we can get a clear direction for bonds.

 

In summary:

 

My focus has been on something other than technology stocks (like AI, Semi) or bonds. 

 

I see signs that defensives (Biotech, Insurance, Pharmacology, consumer staples) and oil and gas could be big winners in the next six months. Yes, oil! 

 

Not Electric Vehicles. 

OIL! 

 

I can't wait to be done with the election.

 

Cheers

 

Christopher R Lakian

Owner, Portfolio Manager, AIF

 

Magnetic North Financial

1156 Bowman Road Suite 200

Mt Pleasant SC 29464

Main Number: 843-212-4023

Cell: 843-737-6060

Global Relay Secure Text: 843-428-7827

 

 

OneSeven ("OneSeven") is a registered investment adviser with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Registration with the SEC does not imply a certain level of skill or training. All titles listed for individuals associated with Magnetic North Financial represent the individual's role with Magnetic North Financial, and not their role with OneSeven. Services are provided under the name Magnetic North Financial, a DBA of OneSeven.

 

 
 
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OneSeven ("OneSeven") is a registered investment adviser with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Registration with the SEC does not imply a certain level of skill or training. All titles listed for individuals associated with Magnetic North Financial represent the individual's role with Magnetic North Financial, and not their role with OneSeven. Services are provided under the name Magnetic North Financial, a DBA of OneSeven.

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