Dear Friends and Family,
Today, I was in line at the coffee shop just across the street from our new office, talking to my good friend Matt in Washington, DC. We spoke about some stocks I like and wanted his opinion (we are in the same business).
The barista heard my conversation and asked if he could chat with me about his stocks when I was finished.
Of course! I replied.
The young man, not a hair older than 22, was day trading on his app at work.
He owned all sorts of MEME stocks and Ideas off Reddit (a popular forum for useless opinions and banter). He wanted opinions on technical charts, Marijuana stocks, SPACs, and on and on.
After 20 minutes, I asked which company you have made the most on over the last two years.
He replied, “ A technology company [name redacted for legal reasons]."
He said this is the only position he hadn’t day traded. He just bought it and forgot about it
It had now dawned on this eager learner, that the best-performing investment he made was one where he left it alone and gave it time to work.
Lesson learned!
As investors, it's expected to be inpatient with an investment. I don't care if you're a young or older investor; we all like seeing our accounts steadily climb higher.
I also get impatient quite quickly because I look at the accounts daily and want nothing more than my work and research to be a success.
In my view, 2021 has been a year of complete bifurcation. We went from two competing strategies value to growth, then back again, clarifying, as the media puts it, "the reopen trade vs. lockdown trade."
From a professional perspective, I wish it wasn't such a stark difference. It wreaks havoc on making decisions and then sticking with your convictions.
My opinion for the next two months.
From experience, the market loves big round numbers, and based on my technical analysis and our current seasonality, I believe it is likely that we will rally and hit 5000 on the S&P 500 index.
That’s 6.45% higher from this letter (4697.96 as of 11.19.21). It would take a very disruptive event to alter our path.
Last note: whoever is nominated for Fed Chairman is a really big deal. I will touch on this point after Thanksgiving. I hope all have a wonderful Thanksgiving holiday with family and loved ones.
All my best
Christopher R. Lakian