Pounding oil into submisson

No light-hearted intros or fun conversation

It is hard to fully grasp the realities of what has just occurred.

January and February:

We had several things working in our favor until March 1st. We had slowing inflation, lower interest rates, and a contracting deficit.  

We were also continuing to benefit from a monster stimulus,  the global Artificial Intelligence buildout, and the incredible investment opportunities surrounding this exciting new technology.

War is bad news:

One of the struggles we will through the summer of 2026 is the damage done by the intense and effective drone strikes by Iran on the regional oil/gas infrastructure.

Oil is so precious to a fully functional economy.

People forget because the United States drills a lot of oil, we get the impression that everything is done domestically, and any issues in the Middle East don't really affect us.

That's not true!

We haven't built a new large-scale refinery domestically since 1977.

In comparison, just one of many examples. Qatar on the coast of the Persian Gulf has one of the largest LNG plants in the world “Ras Laffan” commissioned in 1996, produces a staggering 15 million tons of Liquid Natural gas a year.

Asia is highly affected:

Las Raffan is now partially offline according to Qatar. It will take 3-5 years to repair the damage caused by Iran.

84% of the crude, and natural gas that passes through the now blocked strait of Hormuz from plants similar to las Raffan, go to China, India, Pakistan, Japan, Korea and more. (source eia.gov)

Pakistan and India are already experiencing shortages. (source UN.org)

The rest of Asia is not far behind.

Whoever you decide to blame for this mess, one thing is clear.

It will take time, money, and engineering to repair and recover from the barrage of drones and missiles.

Markets and you:

Currently we are still in the late stages of panic, and markets are adjusting to now rising Inflation and a slowing global economy.

I do see a glimmer of sunrise on the horizon; it is becoming obvious that Iran is beginning to clearly lose the ability to strike and launch large waves of aerial assaults.

Iran will eventually surrender or become so incapacitated that the only thing they can do is herd goats and complain on Twitter.

When that day comes, and it will, make no mistake; markets will recover very quickly faster than you or I can react.

We just need to be patient for the moment.

I am happy to discuss exactly what I can do when the opportunity presents itself.

Chris

Christopher R Lakian

Owner, Portfolio Manager, AIF

Magnetic North Financial LLC

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