Third quarter expectations: election coverage

Hello everyone.

If you want an update on the services and progress of Magnetic North Financial LLC,  I sent it out on 7/16/2024. Please let me know if you want another copy.

I have been watching the Republican National Convention periodically. (I also plan to watch the Democrat convention; more on that later). In Milwaukee, Republicans are dancing in the aisles, waving their hands and cheering an assumed victory of Trump and their new populist agenda.

I have news for you: it's way too early to celebrate! Let's not forget that there are some real dangers ahead for Trump; not only is his sentence in New York in September, but The Democrats are not going to roll over and play dead. They will pull a rabbit out of a hat.

I put my odds at 5/10 chance Biden is forced out. The Republican Party and Democratic Party are more concerned with their jobs than doing the right thing for the country. Both are terrified of losing! That's why polls of 8/10 Americans consistently say we are heading in the wrong direction, and most Americans mourn the election.

As for my personal beliefs, those who know me know I am fiscally conservative and socially liberal, which makes me kind of an outcast at the moment. I plan to write in my Corgi as president, "Oberon will rule all."

For money and risk management,  "hypothetical, what if" moments are not attainable or calculable. Uncertainty can be a market killer, but if elected in 2024, Trump or Biden is not a risk for money management. It may upset people personally, but we have lived through both and will continue to make it work. 

The risk is an unknown candidate replaces one or both. And I will not assume or react to it at the moment. Let's see what happens first. The media is raking in the dough in ratings over speculation.

August through mid-November can historically be a bumpy ride. Third-quarter earnings can disrupt progress and create uncertainty for year-end expectations. I plan to rebalance accounts to their original risk models by the first week of August. I haven't done a major rebalance this year because the market has been strong, and I don't see that being disrupted to make me overly concerned and want to de-risk for the rest of 2024.

On a positive note, if the rotation that occurred last week from Technology Stocks to Industrials, Financials, and Consumer stocks continues. Refinitiv’s Starmine calculations have provided very attractive valuations for some companies that have played dead over the last two years.

Bottom line, is if the rotation continues away from mega-cap technology stocks, with the software at my disposal, We could have a real opportunity to make serious progress into 2025

Cheers

chris

Christopher R Lakian

Owner, Portfolio Manager, AIF

Magnetic North Financial

1156 Bowman Road Suite 200

Mt Pleasant SC 29464

Main Number: 843-212-4023

Cell: 843-737-6060

Global Relay Secure Text: 843-428-7827

Website: www.MagneticNorthFinancial.com

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